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Trump's Systematic Undermining of NATO: Threatening Withdrawal, Refusing Article 5

Trump's first clear signal came in May 2017 at NATO headquarters in Brussels, where he delivered a speech at the unveiling of a 9/11 memorial wall without explicitly affirming Article 5 collective defense — the alliance's core commitment. His aides later said the affirmation had been removed from the speech at Trump's direction. Over the following years, Trump repeatedly demanded NATO allies pay 2% of GDP on defense, threatened withdrawal, and reportedly told European leaders in private that the U.S. might not come to their aid. In February 2024, during the 2024 campaign, Trump stated publicly that he would 'encourage' Russia to attack NATO members who he thought hadn't paid enough.

Record summary

Grade

Grade 4 of 5: Critical Rights and Rule-of-Law Concern

Systematic actions that undermine fundamental constitutional or international legal protections at the structural level. Scale and definitions

Status
Concluded
Incident date
Record updated
Location
Brussels, Belgium / Washington, D.C.
Category
Foreign Policy & War
Legal posture
Reported
War-crime classification
Enabling conduct
Verification
Independently verified
ICC relevance
No
Sources
3 cited
Stable ID
trump-nato-article-5-undermining
Victims
NATO member state populations whose security depends on Article 5 credibility; Baltic states and Poland especially vulnerable to Russian aggression; Ukraine, whose invasion was emboldened by NATO credibility questions
Alleged responsible parties
  • Donald Trump, President; withheld Article 5 affirmation; threatened NATO withdrawal; stated he would encourage Russian attacks— White House

Key points

  • In his May 2017 address at NATO headquarters — including at the unveiling of a memorial incorporating steel from the World Trade Center — Trump did not explicitly affirm Article 5; aides later confirmed the affirmation had been removed from the prepared speech at Trump's direction
  • In 2018, Trump reportedly told European leaders at a private dinner that the U.S. might not defend them if Russia attacked; NATO ambassadors described unprecedented uncertainty about the U.S. commitment for the first time in the alliance's history
  • Trump repeatedly threatened to withdraw the U.S. from NATO unless allies reached the 2% GDP defense spending target — a threat he repeated to multiple European leaders in private meetings, and which he mentioned in public as well
  • In a February 2024 campaign speech, Trump stated that he had told a European leader he would 'encourage' Russia to 'do whatever the hell they want' to NATO members who had not met the 2% target — a statement that caused immediate concern among NATO allies and in the U.S. defense establishment
  • Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 — a NATO aspirant state — in what Western intelligence assessed was partly enabled by uncertainty about Western resolve cultivated during the Trump years
  • The 2024 statement was made during the presidential campaign while Trump was seeking to return to office; it was not a hypothetical or misquote — Trump repeated and defended it

Overview

Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states that an armed attack against one member shall be considered an attack against all. This commitment has been the foundation of European security for 75 years. It has been reaffirmed by every U.S. president who has addressed the alliance.

Trump did not reaffirm it in his first NATO address. He removed the affirmation before giving the speech.

The 2017 Omission

The 2017 NATO address was drafted with an Article 5 affirmation. National security officials had included it. Trump removed it before delivery. Standing at a memorial incorporating steel from the World Trade Center — the attack that had triggered the only invocation of Article 5 in NATO's history — he delivered a speech about burden sharing that left the alliance's core commitment unstated.

NATO ambassadors described a degree of uncertainty about U.S. commitments they had never experienced before.

The Private Threats

What Trump said in public was concerning. What European leaders reported he said in private was more so. Multiple accounts, corroborated by European diplomatic sources, described Trump telling leaders at private dinners and in bilateral meetings that the U.S. might not come to their defense if Russia attacked.

This is the credibility that NATO collective defense depends on. Once called into question, it cannot be fully restored by a subsequent statement.

The 2024 Statement

The February 2024 campaign statement was not ambiguous. Trump described a past conversation in which he told a European leader he would "encourage" Russia to attack NATO members who hadn't paid enough. He repeated it and defended it when asked.

The statement was made while Russia was conducting a war in Europe and while Trump was actively seeking to return to the presidency.

International law engaged

InstrumentProvisionWhat it protects or prohibits
North Atlantic TreatyArticle 5An armed attack against one shall be considered an attack against all — Trump's refusal to affirm and his public statements encouraging attacks on non-payers created the first genuine ambiguity about this commitment in NATO's 75-year history

Update log

  1. Updated with 2024 campaign statement.

Sequence of events

  1. Trump speaks at NATO — omits Article 5 affirmation

    Trump delivers an address at NATO headquarters in Brussels that includes no explicit affirmation of Article 5 collective defense — the first time a U.S. president had spoken at NATO and failed to reaffirm the alliance's core commitment. Aides confirm the affirmation was removed from the prepared text.

  2. Trump threatens NATO withdrawal at Brussels summit

    At the 2018 NATO summit in Brussels, Trump threatens to withdraw the U.S. from NATO if allies don't immediately meet the 2% GDP spending target. He delivers the threat in extraordinary terms, describing NATO as 'even worse' than NAFTA.

  3. NYT reports Trump considered NATO withdrawal

    The New York Times reports that Trump told senior advisors he wanted to withdraw from NATO in 2018. Aides reportedly worked to prevent him from doing so.

  4. Trump states he'd encourage Russia to attack NATO members

    At a campaign rally in Conway, South Carolina, Trump describes telling a European leader he would encourage Russia to attack NATO members who didn't pay enough: 'I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.' NATO allies and U.S. defense officials respond with alarm.

Sources

  1. Trump Gives Speech at NATO Without Explicitly Endorsing Article 5 — The New York Times
  2. Trump privately threatened to pull U.S. from NATO — The Washington Post
  3. Trump says he would encourage Russia to attack NATO members who don't pay — The Associated Press

How this record was published

Manually curated This entry was added directly and does not carry an automated audit trail.

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