NATO Article 5 Threats: Encouraging Russia to Attack Allies Who Don't Pay
NATO's collective defense commitment under Article 5 — that an attack against one member is an attack against all — was the foundational guarantee that had maintained European security for 75 years. Trump's statement that he would encourage Russia to attack members he deemed to be underpaying undermined the credibility of the deterrence that Article 5 provided. NATO allies condemned the statements as dangerous; European leaders described them as a fundamental threat to the alliance's deterrence value. In his second term, Trump continued pressing NATO members with threats of U.S. withdrawal contingent on spending levels, while simultaneously pursuing a Ukraine peace framework that European allies described as favorable to Russia.
Record summary
Grade
Grade 4 of 5: Critical Rights and Rule-of-Law Concern
Systematic actions that undermine fundamental constitutional or international legal protections at the structural level. Scale and definitions
- Status
- Ongoing
- Incident date
- Record updated
- Location
- Conway, SC / Brussels, Belgium
- Category
- Foreign Policy & War
- Legal posture
- Reported
- War-crime classification
- Enabling conduct
- Verification
- Independently verified
- ICC relevance
- No
- Sources
- 4 cited
- Stable ID
trump-second-term-nato-article5-threats- Victims
- NATO member populations in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states whose security depends on the credibility of Article 5 deterrence; Ukraine, whose defense was weakened by U.S. military aid suspension during the same period; European democratic institutions dependent on the transatlantic alliance
- Alleged responsible parties
- Donald Trump, Presidential candidate and then President; made explicit statements encouraging Russian attacks on NATO allies; continued threatening U.S. withdrawal from NATO conditional on spending levels; undermined Article 5 deterrence credibility— Trump Campaign / White House
Key points
- Trump's exact words at the Conway rally on February 10, 2024: 'One of the presidents of a big country stood up and said, well, sir, if we don't pay and Russia attacks us, will you protect us? I said, no, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills.' The statement was widely interpreted as undermining Article 5 by making it conditional on spending levels — something the treaty itself does not do
- NATO's collective defense article (Article 5) had been invoked only once in the alliance's 75-year history — by the United States, after September 11, 2001; its deterrence value depends on the unconditional credibility of the commitment; Trump's statement that he would actively encourage Russian attacks on non-paying allies directly attacked that credibility
- NATO's official spending goal is 2% of GDP; in 2024, 18 of 32 members met this target, up from 9 in 2021; the United States itself spent approximately 3.4% of GDP on defense; Trump's demand that allies spend 5% of GDP was not a NATO standard and was not achievable for most members in the short term; the threat to withhold protection based on spending levels incentivized allies to question the reliability of the alliance
- European leaders, including NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, German Chancellor Scholz, French President Macron, Polish Prime Minister Tusk, and UK Prime Minister Sunak, condemned Trump's February 2024 statements as dangerous and irresponsible; several noted that the statements played directly into Russian strategic objectives of fracturing NATO cohesion
- Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine had already demonstrated the consequences of NATO's eastern border; the Baltic states — Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania — and Poland had been the most vocal advocates for reinforcing Article 5 credibility precisely because of their geographic exposure to Russian aggression; Trump's statements were received in those countries as an existential threat
- In his second term, Trump continued the spending pressure but also simultaneously pursued a Ukraine peace framework European allies described as endorsing Russian territorial gains; the combination — undermining Ukraine's defense and threatening NATO commitments — was described by European officials as the most serious threat to European security since the end of the Cold War
Overview
NATO Article 5 works because it is unconditional. If an adversary believes the commitment might not apply — if there is a credible possibility that the United States would allow or encourage an attack — the deterrence fails. The value of the guarantee is precisely in its absoluteness.
Trump said on camera that he would encourage Russia to attack NATO allies he deemed insufficient payers.
What He Said
The statement at the Conway rally was specific and detailed. Trump described a conversation with an unnamed European leader. The leader asked whether the U.S. would protect his country if Russia attacked and they hadn't paid. Trump said he told the leader: no, he would not protect them. And furthermore, he would encourage Russia to do whatever they wanted.
He described this as a proud moment. Proof that he was tough on burden-sharing.
The statement was not a slip. It was an anecdote he chose to tell, approvingly, about his own conduct.
What Article 5 Does
Article 5 had been invoked once in NATO's 75-year history. The United States invoked it after September 11, 2001. Every NATO ally's military participated in the response to the attack on the United States.
The Baltic states' security — Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, small countries on Russia's border — rests entirely on the credibility of Article 5. If Russia believed the U.S. would not honor the commitment, the deterrence calculation changes fundamentally. Russian strategists were watching.
The European Response
European leaders understood what Trump's statement meant. Not that he would renegotiate burden-sharing — that was a legitimate debate. But that he would encourage Russian military attacks as a negotiating tool. That he was signaling to Moscow that the commitment was conditional.
The response was emergency summits, accelerated independent defense investment, and public condemnations from Germany, France, Poland, the UK, and NATO leadership. Countries that had spent 75 years relying on the American commitment began planning for the possibility that it could not be relied upon.
In his second term, the Ukraine aid freeze and the Russia-friendly peace framework confirmed what the February 2024 statement had signaled.
International law engaged
| Instrument | Provision | What it protects or prohibits |
|---|---|---|
| North Atlantic Treaty | Article 5 | Publicly undermining the collective defense commitment by suggesting the U.S. would not honor Article 5 obligations — and encouraging adversary attacks on alliance members — directly threatens the treaty framework and the security of 30+ nations |
Update log
-
Updated with second-term NATO pressure framework and European response.
Sequence of events
-
Trump states he would encourage Russia to attack non-paying NATO allies
At a campaign rally in Conway, South Carolina, Trump describes a conversation with an unnamed NATO leader in which he said he would not protect countries that didn't pay and would encourage Russia to 'do whatever the hell they want' against them. NATO allies and officials condemn the statements.
-
NATO allies respond — European leaders condemn statements as dangerous
European leaders across NATO issue condemnations. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg states that suggesting any ally would be left undefended 'undermines our collective security.' Leaders of Baltic states and Poland issue strongest statements given their geographic exposure.
-
Second term begins — NATO pressure framework continues
Trump returns to office and continues demanding 5% GDP defense spending from allies with withdrawal threats. The NATO pressure is combined with Ukraine aid freeze and Russia-friendly peace framework, creating cumulative threat to European security architecture.
-
NATO emergency consultations — transatlantic fracture documented
European NATO leaders convene emergency consultations on how to maintain security cooperation given U.S. posture changes. France and UK accelerate independent defense investment discussions. The European Defense Industrial Strategy is accelerated.
Sources
- Trump Says He Would Encourage Russia to Attack Nato Allies Who Don't Pay — The New York Times
- Trump's Nato remarks alarm European leaders — The Washington Post
- Trump says he'd let Russia 'do whatever the hell they want' to NATO allies — The Associated Press
- The North Atlantic Treaty — Article 5 — NATO archived ✓