Drone War Expansion: Relaxed Rules of Engagement and Surging Civilian Casualties

Overview

One of the least-examined aspects of the Trump first term was the dramatic expansion of drone and air strikes in multiple countries — Somalia, Yemen, Afghanistan, and Syria — accompanied by a systematic weakening of rules designed to minimize civilian casualties.

The Trump administration made two major policy changes in 2017. First, it designated large areas in Somalia and Yemen as "Areas of Active Hostility," allowing military commanders to approve strikes without the individual White House review required under Obama's Presidential Policy Guidance. Second, it relaxed the standard for strike approval from "near-certainty" that no civilians would be killed to "reasonable certainty" — and reclassified military-age males in strike zones as presumptive combatants under certain circumstances.

Scale of the Expansion

• Somalia: Under Obama's two terms, the U.S. conducted approximately 36 airstrikes in Somalia. Under Trump's four years, the number exceeded 215.
• Afghanistan: Total airstrikes in Afghanistan under Trump's first two years exceeded the total of Obama's entire second term. The UN documented that for the first time in the Afghan conflict, U.S. and government forces killed more civilians than Taliban forces in the first half of 2019.
• Yemen: The U.S. continued and expanded cooperation with Saudi Arabia in the Yemen war, including intelligence support and logistics for strikes that killed large numbers of civilians.

Civilian Harm Tracking Dismantled

In 2018, the Trump administration announced it would no longer publish annual civilian casualty reports from drone strikes — the reporting requirement established by a 2016 Obama executive order. The decision was reversed after congressional pressure. The administration also eliminated a Defense Department program that tracked civilian harm in real time.

The Presumptive Combatant Classification

The classification of military-age males in strike zones as presumptive combatants — unless affirmatively shown to be civilian — directly contradicts the fundamental principle of distinction under international humanitarian law. The Geneva Conventions and their Additional Protocols require that in case of doubt, a person shall be considered a civilian. The Trump administration effectively inverted this requirement.

Accountability Gap

No U.S. officials were prosecuted or disciplined for any strikes that killed civilians during the Trump administration. Strikes that killed wedding parties, funerals, and families displaced by previous strikes were classified as operational incidents rather than investigated as potential war crimes. The UN Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial killings raised concerns about the U.S.'s failure to investigate and provide remedies for civilian strike casualties.